The Granger causality of digital connectivity and trade globalization in the health crisis

Petkovski, Ivana; Fedajev, Aleksandra; Milošević, Isidora

doi:10.5937/IMCSM24022P

Conference Object Open access M33

IMCSM24_Book_of_proceedings_Issue_1-221-231.pdf .pdf (1.26MB)

2024

Petkovski, Ivana
Fedajev, Aleksandra
Milošević, Isidora

University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty in Bor

[XX] International May Conference on Strategic Management – IMCSM24, May 31, 2024, Bor [Elektronski izvor]

221

231

English

M33 - Conference paper at an international conference, printed in full

The widespread adoption of digital technology in the last decade has caused global changes, leading to the belief that technology is altering the global connectivity of economies. This is especially emphasized in light of the global health crisis in 2020. To efficiently monitor this process, it is vital to assess the anticipatory potential of this type of digital connectivity and the growth of globalization in trade. An effective analysis of this issue necessitates looking into the causative relationship between digital technology connections and trade globalization. This is performed by applying the statistical approach of Granger causality to a data set consisting of 35 European countries from 2010 to 2022. A Granger causality study was performed using the lag value estimated based on the Akaike information criterion, which equals 2. The findings suggested that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between active mobile-broadband subscriptions and imports, with the former influencing the latter. However, this causal relationship fails to be valid in the opposite direction. The examination revealed a reciprocal relationship between fixed-telephone subscriptions and exports, as well as a reciprocal relationship between fixed-telephone subscriptions and imports. The results reveal the bidirectional value of the number of fixed telephone subscriptions as a measure of digital connectivity.

digital technology, import, export, crisis, causality

DOI

10.5937/IMCSM24022P

ISSN

2620-0597

ISBN

978-86-6305-150-8

URI

https://mksm.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/downloads/2024/I...
https://repozitorijum.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/handle/...

Scopus

OpenCitations

dc.rights.license	CC-BY-NC-ND
dc.identifier.issn	2620-0597
dc.identifier.doi	10.5937/IMCSM24022P
dc.identifier.uri	https://mksm.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/downloads/2024/IMCSM24_Book_of_proceedings_Issue_1.pdf
dc.identifier.uri	https://repozitorijum.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/5956
dc.description.abstract	The widespread adoption of digital technology in the last decade has caused global changes, leading to the belief that technology is altering the global connectivity of economies. This is especially emphasized in light of the global health crisis in 2020. To efficiently monitor this process, it is vital to assess the anticipatory potential of this type of digital connectivity and the growth of globalization in trade. An effective analysis of this issue necessitates looking into the causative relationship between digital technology connections and trade globalization. This is performed by applying the statistical approach of Granger causality to a data set consisting of 35 European countries from 2010 to 2022. A Granger causality study was performed using the lag value estimated based on the Akaike information criterion, which equals 2. The findings suggested that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between active mobile-broadband subscriptions and imports, with the former influencing the latter. However, this causal relationship fails to be valid in the opposite direction. The examination revealed a reciprocal relationship between fixed-telephone subscriptions and exports, as well as a reciprocal relationship between fixed-telephone subscriptions and imports. The results reveal the bidirectional value of the number of fixed telephone subscriptions as a measure of digital connectivity.
dc.language.iso	en
dc.publisher	University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty in Bor
dc.source	[XX] International May Conference on Strategic Management – IMCSM24, May 31, 2024, Bor [Elektronski izvor]
dc.subject	digital technology
dc.subject	import
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject	export
dc.subject	crisis
dc.subject	causality
dc.title	The Granger causality of digital connectivity and trade globalization in the health crisis
dc.type	conferenceObject
dc.type.version	publishedVersion
dc.citation.volume	XX
dc.citation.issue	1
dc.citation.spage	221
dc.citation.epage	231
dc.creator	Petkovski, Ivana
dc.citation.rank	M33
dc.creator	Fedajev, Aleksandra
dc.creator	Milošević, Isidora
dc.date.accessioned	2025-01-15T12:02:10Z
dc.date.available	2025-01-15T12:02:10Z
dc.date.issued	2024
dc.identifier.isbn	978-86-6305-150-8


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