Occupational safety challenges in Serbia: a longitudinal analysis of injury trends and forecasts (2015–2027)

Milijić, Nenad; Radić, Aleksandra; Jovanović, Ivan

doi:10.5937/IMCSM26720M

Conference Object Open access M33

Milijić et al., 2026_IMCSM.pdf (586.69KB)

2026

Milijić, Nenad
Radić, Aleksandra
Jovanović, Ivan

University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty in Bor

Book of proceedings [Elektronski izvor] - XXII International May Conference on Strategic Management – IMCSM26, May 2026, Belgrade, Serbia

XXII

720

729

English

M33 - Conference paper at an international conference, printed in full

This study examines the dynamics of occupational safety in the Republic of Serbia over a ten-year period (2015–2024). Utilizing official data from the Ministry of Labour and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the research employs descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and Holt’s linear trend model to analyze the relationship between employment growth and injury rates. The results indicate a significant deterioration in workplace safety, with the incidence rate nearly doubling from 36.64 in 2015 to 67.03 per 100,000 employees in 2024. A very strong positive correlation (r = 0.894) was found between workforce expansion and injury frequency, suggesting that economic growth has outpaced the development of safety protocols. Furthermore, the Holt model forecasts a continued upward trajectory for the 2025– 2027 period. These findings highlight a critical "implementation gap" between legislative modernization and practical safety outcomes, emphasizing the urgent need for a more robust enforcement of occupational health and safety (OSH) standards.

Occupational safety, workplace injuries, incidence rate, forecasting

DOI

10.5937/IMCSM26720M

ISSN

2620-0597

ISBN

978-86-6305-169-0

URI

https://repozitorijum.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/handle/...

Scopus

OpenCitations

dc.creator	Milijić, Nenad
dc.creator	Radić, Aleksandra
dc.creator	Jovanović, Ivan
dc.contributor	Nikolić, Đorđe
dc.title	Occupational safety challenges in Serbia: a longitudinal analysis of injury trends and forecasts (2015–2027)
dc.date.issued	2026
dc.publisher	University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty in Bor
dc.identifier.doi	10.5937/IMCSM26720M
dc.identifier.isbn	978-86-6305-169-0
dc.identifier.issn	2620-0597
dc.type	conferenceObject
dc.source	Book of proceedings [Elektronski izvor] - XXII International May Conference on Strategic Management – IMCSM26, May 2026, Belgrade, Serbia
dc.citation.volume	XXII
dc.citation.issue	1
dc.citation.spage	720
dc.citation.epage	729
dc.language.iso	en
dc.type.version	publishedVersion
dc.citation.rank	M33
dc.subject	Occupational safety
dc.subject	workplace injuries
dc.subject	incidence rate
dc.subject	forecasting
dc.description.abstract	This study examines the dynamics of occupational safety in the Republic of Serbia over a ten-year period (2015–2024). Utilizing official data from the Ministry of Labour and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the research employs descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and Holt’s linear trend model to analyze the relationship between employment growth and injury rates. The results indicate a significant deterioration in workplace safety, with the incidence rate nearly doubling from 36.64 in 2015 to 67.03 per 100,000 employees in 2024. A very strong positive correlation (r = 0.894) was found between workforce expansion and injury frequency, suggesting that economic growth has outpaced the development of safety protocols. Furthermore, the Holt model forecasts a continued upward trajectory for the 2025– 2027 period. These findings highlight a critical "implementation gap" between legislative modernization and practical safety outcomes, emphasizing the urgent need for a more robust enforcement of occupational health and safety (OSH) standards.
dc.rights.license	CC-BY-NC-ND
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.date.accessioned	2026-10-12T06:44:17Z
dc.description.provenance	Submitted by aradic@tfbor.bg.ac.rs on 2026-09-24 07:51:56.703643, with 2 file(s). Approved by Милица Ницуловић (mniculovic@tfbor.bg.ac.rs) on 2026-10-12T06:44:17Z.
dc.identifier.uri	https://repozitorijum.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/6132
dc.identifier.fulltext	https://repozitorijum.tfbor.bg.ac.rs/bitstream?id=94b84c5f-d805-4eb3-939b-e5c7ab490aab


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