Stock price prediction of the largest automotive competitors based on the Monte Carlo method
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Date
2023
Authors
Novićević Čečević, Bojana
Antić, Ljilja
Jevtić, Adrijana
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Niš, Faculty of Economics
Sciendo [Commercial Publisher]
Sciendo [Commercial Publisher]
Source
Economic Themes
Volume
63
Issue
3
Abstract
The transition to electric vehicles would be a great improvement for the population. On the other hand, this transition will make a great pressure for companies in the automotive industry, since they would have to develop such vehicles and make them better than traditional ones. Moreover, the transition period can last a long time. In the meantime, fossil fuel car sale rates are still dominant in the world. In this paper, the stock price prediction is made for two of the world s largest competitors in automotive industry - Toyota and General Motors. The prediction covers one year, based on historical data of stock price trends using Monte Carlo simulation in two possible cases: the first, with 1,000 outcomes, and the second, with 10,000 outcomes. After price simulation, a comparative analysis of the results obtained for these two companies follows. The results show that the greater the number of outcomes specified in the prediction, the greater the variability of the results compared to the variability of historical data. In other words, the transition of General Motors to the leading position is not impossible.
Description
Keywords
stock prices, Monte Carlo method, automotive industry
Citation
DOI
10.2478/ethemes-2023-0022
Scopus
ISSN
0353-8648
2217-3668
1450-961X
2217-3668
1450-961X
ISBN
License
CC-BY-NC-ND