Stock price prediction based on the Monte Carlo method
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Date
2023
Authors
Jevtić, Adrijana
Riznić, Dejan
Tomić, Miša
Tomić, Nevena
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Belgrade, Technical Faculty in Bor
Source
IMCSM23 proceedings - XIX International May Conference on Strategic Management, May 25, 2023, Bor, 2023, 358-368
Volume
XIX
Issue
1
Abstract
The automotive industry market has always been very specific. Today, this market is even more demanding, because the principle of the products offered there is changing fundamentally. The electric cars that are on the market today are still in the early stages, but they have great potential. In this paper, a prediction was made on the stock prices of Tesla, Inc., one of the pioneers in the industry of electric cars. The forecast of stock prices of this company was made for one year, i.e. for 252 trading days settled on the Monte Carlo method. MATLAB software was used for the forecast based on three years of historical data on stock prices. The results of the simulation performed show that the longer the forecast period, the greater the deviations from the historical data. From the predicted values, it can be concluded that the stock price volatility varies greatly in the case of 10,000 possible outcomes and for different prediction periods. In addition to the extreme values of the predicted stock price for the observed period, the most frequently predicted stock price value is close to the average historical price.
Description
Keywords
Automotive industry, Stock price movement, Monte Carlo method, Price prediction, MATLAB, Tesla Inc.
Citation
DOI
Scopus
ISSN
2620-0597
ISBN
978-86-6305-136-2
License
CC-BY-NC-ND